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www.亚虎娱777.com:应高度警惕危化品企业多米诺效应事故

2017年6月5日,山东金誉石化发生罐车液化气泄漏爆炸事故,并相继引爆其他罐车和9个储罐,这次事故是由初始事故引发后续事故,是典型的多米诺效应事故。
发布时间:2017-09-21 14:51        来源:赛迪智库        作者:黄玉垚 高宏

www.亚虎娱777.com,  就在王静还在努力捋顺这些学校的区别时,培训老师马上问王静,她心目中的意向学校是哪一所。这些年来,尽管劳务税征税的执行力各有差别、理解上也见仁见智,但税法相关条款的滞后与岿然,已经让劳务税成为民意关注的靶心。  近日,由中宣部支持指导、文化部委托国家图书馆组织实施的“中华传统文化百部经典”编纂工作召开编纂委员会第一次会议。崔猛摄  据介绍,四平调起源于安徽省砀山县周寨镇,在“砀山花鼓”的基础上,吸收评剧、京剧、豫剧等的腔调发展而成。

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2017年6月5日,山东金誉石化发生罐车液化气泄漏爆炸事故,并相继引爆其他罐车和9个储罐,这次事故是由初始事故引发后续事故,是典型的多米诺效应事故。目前业界对多米诺效应的研究多集中在概率计算和实验模拟,企业对多米诺风险评估较少。建议将多米诺效应评价纳入到企业风险评价,合理规范危化品装置布局,以避免多米诺效应事故的再次发生。

一、国内外多米诺效应事故防治研究与应用不足

多米诺效应研究多集中在概率计算和实验模拟阶段。学术界2005年给出了一个相对完整的多米诺效应事故概念,即一个由初始事故引发的,波及临近一个或者多个设备,从而引起二次事故或者多次事故,导致总体后果比初始事故更严重的事故。多米诺效应事故产生的后果严重,但各国将研究重点过多地放在了如何避免初始事故的发生和企业的安全管理方面,对多米诺效应的研究较少。我国2006年开始研究多米诺效应事故,研究多集中在针对特定化学品装置进行概率计算和实验模拟,成果没有得到普遍应用,也没有研发出适合我国实际情况的多米诺效应风评软件。

多因素诱发多米诺效应制约分析数据的准确性。从以往事故分析可知,诱发多米诺效应的原因是在特定区域内热辐射、冲击波或抛射碎片在一定时间内超过极限值,并对邻近单元造成了破坏,引起了二次事故。影响多米诺效应的因素很多,包括碎片抛射距离、击中概率、碎片形状、阻力系数、初始抛射速度、爆炸球罐本身尺寸、间距、目标球罐体积等。由于企业内情况复杂,因素随机变化率高,计算结果误差较大,对多米诺效应分析数据的准确性和二次事故发生概率的评估影响很大,要真正实现多米诺效应评估的实际应用尚需时日。

多米诺效应事故的定量风险评价方法存在缺陷。目前,国际通用的多米诺效应评估方法是定量风险评价。在评价过程中,根据初始事故的危害蔓延极限和扩展概率,来计算二次或多次事故的发生概率,最后对事故综合危害结果进行评估。但在评价过程中,确定相关临界值的分歧很大,分析资料的可靠性和在不同因素影响下的准确性都存变数,对结果会造成偏差。另外,多米诺效应事故的分析是一个复杂的过程,无法准确并完全分析出事故后果,所以在扩展概率计算中,必定会忽略事故相互作用而产生的合成效应。这虽然在实验中能有效分析出初始事故和二次事故产生的后果,但在实际应用中,由于合成效应的存在会造成更严重的后果,忽略合成效应的研究会对实际应用产生巨大影响。

二、我国危化品企业易发多米诺效应事故的主要原因

多米诺效应风险评价未纳入产业规划布局体系。近几年,尽管我国的危化品企业改建、扩建和入园工作明显提速,但多年粗放式增长和低水平发展,导致布局和规划工作仍稍显滞后。《石油化工企业设计防火规范》(GB50160-2015)、《石油库设计规范》(GB50074-2002)和《化工企业定量风险评价导则》(AQ/T 3046-2013)等相关标准规范并没有将多米诺效应风险纳入其中,无法准确指导危化品装置的合理布局。企业在安全距离的确定过程中,多依据历史数据和相似设备的评估经验,数据较粗略,没有进行系统分析,也没有考虑连锁反应的影响。

风险辨识及应急处置能力缺失加大多米诺效应。从山东金誉石化这次爆炸事故可以发现,我国危化品企业相关人员的风险辨识及应急处置能力严重缺失。山东金誉石化在运营前,缺少对油罐装卸区的风险评估,扩大产能后仍采取24小时连续作业及罐车运输液化原料模式,而且事故发生前共有15辆运输车同时进入装卸区,造成风险叠加。这反映了员工风险判别和危害认识能力缺失。此外,自泄漏到爆炸的两分钟内,企业未做任何应急处置,如关闭阀门、组织人员撤离等,造成二次乃至多次事故并发。

研究成果缺失,企业无法得到有效指导。目前,我国在化工园区风险评价方面,还没有系统规定,关于多米诺效应的分析研究工作起步较晚,分析软件或方法也相对较少,对企业的指导作用有限。在不同装置的安全距离确定、危险区域安全防护设备的布局、初始事故后的应对措施等方面,大多是按照现有的国家标准规定、评估报告和以往经验进行实施的,行业缺少合理的、有效的、针对性强的研究成果作为依据,企业或园区无法做到对多米诺效应事故的及时防控。

三、防范措施建议

将多米诺风险评价纳入产业规划布局体系。根据《中共中央国务院关于推进安全生产领域改革发展的意见》中提出的“加快实施人口密集区域的危险化学品和化工企业生产、仓储场所安全搬迁工程”要求,应在危化品企业搬迁和化工园区的规划布局中,将多米诺效应评价纳入到风险评价规范中。一是要根据二次或多次事故特点,尽快修订《石油化工企业设计防火规范》和《化工企业定量风险评价导则》等标准规范,在安全距离、定量风险评价等内容制定时,对多米诺效应评价提出要求。同时,规定重大危险源企业提交的安全评估报告中要有多米诺效应分析的内容,可能产生多米诺效应的企业之间要信息共享,防止风险演变引发事故。二是在企业新建、改建和扩建过程中,积极引导并鼓励企业根据自身的实际情况、项目需求、多米诺效应特点,选择合适的分析模型和方法,确立风险分析步骤和优化布局流程,切实提高风险管控能力,确定基于多米诺效应的规划布局最优方案。

加大风险管控,提升应急处置能力。首先,要根据不同危化品的特性、初始事故扩展形态,进行有针对性的全过程、全链条的动态监控,采用互联网+、大数据等高新技术,完善危险区域的监控、预警和快速反应措施。其次,准确评估危化品企业的安全风险,强化应急处置培训,提升企业对二次事故的防范能力,防止事故扩大升级,并制定优先措施控制二次事故发生。最后,根据多米诺效应事故危害最严重程度来加强风险管控,运用先进的安全技术和产品,增强罐体、卸车区、控制室、相关设备的安全等级,避免事故因风险叠加而造成更大伤亡。

加大研究力度,支撑专业指导。加大资金投入力度,鼓励危化品行业加大对重大危险源发生多米诺效应事故的研究力度,利用大数据等技术手段建立合适的针对初始事故的热辐射、超压或碎片等效应引发多米诺事故的概率模型,完善风险评价流程、风险控制和预防措施,开发分析软件,为危化品企业、化工园区的规划布局提供参考依据,为政府相关部门完善园区风险评价体系提供技术支撑,更为应急救援时防止二次和多次事故的发生提供必要的措施手段。

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